Jerry Yudelson is CEO of Yudelson Associates and a LEED fellow, and is considered a leader in sustainability planning and green building consulting. He recently issued his Top 10 trend predictions for 2012:
1. Despite the economic climate, the drying up of federal funds and construction projects, and the slump in the construction sector, green retrofits and construction will surge in 2012. 20% of new construction in 2011 was erected with LEED guidelines, and LEED project registrations were up 40% over 2010. That trend will continue.
2. The administration is committed to bolstering the greening effort, with mandates that all new federal construction projects meet a Gold certification at the minimum.
3. The green building industry has increased its attention to existing buildings, and LEED-EBOM (LEED-Existing Buildings Operations and Maintenance) is one of the fastest-growing certifications. Cumulative square footage of exisiting-space green retrofits now exceeds that of new construction, and this trend will accelerate in 2012. Investors, developers, landlords and facilities managers are discovering the increased value of "greened" real estate assets over conventionally built ones, and higher lease prices and rents confirm the increased attractiveness of the ROI to retrofit older buildings.
4. Big efforts in research, design, engineering will lead to increased sensitivity to water management. Collection, use and water disposal technologies and good practice guidelines are developing all over the world, and big strides are to be expected in this area in the upcoming years.
5. The global green movement is spreading fast, with 131 of the world's 196 countries engaged in one or more LEED-based construction projects, and 90 countries having established green incentive programs and/or Green Building Councils of their own. In 2011, LEED-based programs outside the United States nearly exceeded the volume of those conducted inside our borders, growing by more than 40% over 2010.
6. The trend towards Zero-net-energy building development will strengthen, as LEED and Energy Star certifications are no longer sufficient to sustain a competitive advantage in the real estate market.
7. Building Performance Disclosures are the fastest growing trend, as highlighted by the emergence of local regulations (Seattle, California), as well as governmental mandates, such as in Australia, regulations requiring full performance reports be made available to buyers, tenants, and the public at large.
8. Building Information Management (BIM) technologies, automation, electronic controls, wireless communication will continue to develop, particularly in "the Cloud".
9. Yudelson sees at least 20 new cities developing green building mandates, with the goals of reducing carbon emission and footprint specified in an increasing number of programs. Designers and builders are more than ever required to factor in these requirements in their designs and proposals.
10. Solar and wind power will continue to grow. The phasing out of federal grants and loan guarantees will probably result in fewer large "farming" programs, but third party investors may provide the capital necessary to develop systems on the roofs of commercial buildings and warehouses. Smaller scale programs are developing and the price point is dropping, so individual or small-community solutions will continue to develop (witness for instance the under $7,000.00 wind tunnel offered by Sauer Technologies, putting electricity generation within the reach of the average homeowner).
In summary: the green "car" is on the road, and is picking up speed. 2012 will be a year of increased public acceptance of and even requirement for more efficient buildings. Designers and builders will increase their capabilities and resources dedicated to green issues. Governments and developers will mandate more green specifications, and tenants require efficiencies to be measured and disclosed. While the main leaders are still governmental agencies and corporations, the general public is becoming more aware of sustainability issues, and there will be a "trickle down" to small communities, businesses and even family dwellings in the years to come.
http://www.earthtechling.com/2011/12/green-building-forecast-sees-retros-rising/
